Syria.Latakia · a U.S. patrol plane tracks a fast object over the sea

On November 18, 2016, a U.S. Navy P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft was watching the eastern Mediterranean from the air. Its task was to follow the activity of the battle group of the Russian carrier Admiral Kuznetsov, which the report calls KCTG. The Russians had kept an expeditionary force in Syria since September 2015, built around Hmeimim air base, a few kilometers southeast of Latakia, and the naval facility at Tartus. In October 2016 the Kuznetsov group deployed to the eastern Mediterranean, and by mid-November a renewed offensive was under way that included cruise-missile launches from ships and the deployment of coastal anti-ship systems along the Syrian shore, weapons whose final flight is precisely sea-skimming.

At about 13:10 UTC, the aircraft's electro-optical and infrared camera detected an unidentified object flying very low, about 55 nautical miles (about 100 km) northwest of Latakia, on the Syrian coast. It was moving at about 500 knots (about 925 km/h) on a southeasterly heading, away from the Russian group, although the report says its origin was unknown. The crew saw it in what they called "sea skim mode," the flight hugging the sea surface typical of an anti-ship missile in its cruise phase.

The mission report records that the crew read what they saw as a possible missile launch. At 13:12 UTC, about two minutes after the detection, the aircraft lost sight of the object some 40 nautical miles (about 75 km) northwest of Latakia. Between the two positions there are 15 miles (about 28 km), which over two minutes works out to an average of about 450 knots, close to the estimated 500. The P-8A was at about 16,000 feet, 26 miles south of the object, with clear visibility and no range limitations. A sensor image included in the report shows the object passing between the Russian salvage ship Ingul and an unidentified vessel.

There was no positive identification, no intercept and no approach toward the P-8A. The mission commander rated the interaction as safe. The report itself says that, although this was the first time a P-8 had observed possible missile activity in the eastern Mediterranean, it was assessed as "standard activity consistent with the assessed activity" of the Kuznetsov group. The report also refers to video of the event, whose link does not appear in the published copy.

The crew thought they saw an anti-ship missile, command filed the event as routine activity of the Russian naval group it was monitoring, and the report still ended up, more than nine years later, in a batch of documents on unidentified aerial phenomena. No one treated it as an anomalous phenomenon at the time: the mission commander rated the interaction as safe and the report assessed it as routine activity.

What is on record is a track on a sensor: an estimated speed, a heading and a loss of contact after two minutes. There was no witness looking out of a window. Two minutes of sensor data without positive identification are not enough to close the case, whatever the cause.

The report links the object to the Russian group only by its heading: it says the object was moving away from the Kuznetsov and, at the same time, that its origin was unknown. The sensor image shows it passing between the Ingul and another vessel that the report does not identify. It gives neither the size nor the shape of the object, and the video it refers to is not in the published copy.

For the hypothesis of another state's weapon, the context is explicit and verifiable: an active foreign military campaign a few tens of miles away, with deployed anti-ship weapons whose flight profile matches what was observed. The command's own assessment points in that direction. The record is too brief to rule that reading out or confirm it.