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Method notes, analysis decisions and corpus progress. How this notebook gets built, out loud.
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How to put a probability on a UAP case
The UAP debate tends to be binary: believer versus skeptic. This project uses a different tool —splitting each case's 100% of probability across six mutually exclusive explanations— to make 200 cases comparable without faking certainty. Here is how it works, and what the numbers say.
· institucional · disclosure · análisis
The disclosure cycle 2017-2026: from leak to infrastructure
In less than a decade the UAP topic went from a leaked news story to a federal portal with a presidential mandate. But more release is not more evidence: the corpus separates the change of channel from the change of proof.
· metodología · radar · análisis
Radar-visual cases: the hard subset
When an object appears at once on a radar screen and to a pilot's eyes, the easy explanations run out of room. It is the corpus's most resistant subset — and the smallest.
· metodología · calibración · análisis
The most-witnessed event is not the most anomalous
Hundreds or thousands of witnesses impress, but the number of observers measures notoriety, not rarity. Three of the corpus's most massive sightings have prosaic explanations — and that is why they are in.
· institucional · Latinoamérica · análisis
The Latin American model: when civil aviation studies UAP
While the United States treated the phenomenon as a problem of secrecy, several South American countries institutionalized it through aviation —air-force and civil-aviation commissions that investigate openly. The corpus documents that model with unusual density.
· metodología · MECE
How to read the corpus probabilities
Why the site splits 100% among six narratives per case, what it means for probabilities to be "comparable", and why that is not the same as truth.
· meta · metodología
Why an open notebook on UAP
UAP Codex is neither a believers' nor a skeptics' site: it is a research notebook with its reasoning on display. This explains what it is for.