Case No. 78·United States / Red Sea

Developing

2024·Red Sea, off the western coast of Yemen

United States / Red Sea.Yemen — Orb / Hellfire Missile Strike (MQ-9, 2024)

Two U.S. MQ-9 Reapers track and engage an unidentified orb with an AGM-114 Hellfire missile in an active combat zone (anti-Houthi operations). The missile deflects without detonating. Military video disclosed at a congressional hearing by a whistleblower (Sep 2025). First public disclosure of an armed engagement against a UAP.

Year

2024

Tier

A

Probability

62%

Category

Incident

Institutional evidence: multiple verifiable witnesses or official documentation. Three independent axes: the «tier» measures the strength of the evidence; the «probability» estimates how genuinely unexplained the case is —a natural phenomenon can remain unexplained, so it does not equal «non-prosaic»—; and the partition of explanations (below) says what it most plausibly was. So a well-documented case can have a possible hoax as its most plausible cause, and a Tier B is not, for that reason, a hoax.

Primary documents · viewer

Contexto · el mar Rojo, frente a cuya costa yemení se grabó la esfera

Context · the Red Sea, off whose Yemeni coast the orb was recorded

Red Sea coast.jpg · Wikimedia Commons · CC BY-SA 4.0 · open original

Part 01

The night in question

On October 30, 2024, at approximately 04:17Z, two U.S. MQ-9 Reapers operating in the Red Sea off the Yemeni coast — an active theater for anti-Houthi operations against drone and missile attacks on commercial shipping — located an unidentified orb using 'buddy lasing' (cross-aircraft target designation) which, per the footage presented, was moving in a straight line low over the sea surface. One MQ-9 fired an AGM-114 Hellfire missile at the object. Video recorded by the second MQ-9 shows the projectile entering from the left of frame and making contact with the orb: the missile deflects without detonating, the object deforms and begins to tumble, shedding smaller objects — one barely visible — trailing from its rear.

The missile's behavior is analytically significant: the AGM-114 Hellfire is a highly effective missile against armored targets and drones, designed to detonate on high-velocity impact. Deflection without detonation implies either a failure of the impact-detonation mechanism or a material property of the orb inconsistent with any known aircraft or drone. The buddy-lasing technique carries tactical weight: that two platforms coordinated target designation before firing indicates the object was treated as a real, trackable aerial threat, not a sensor artifact or a diffuse phenomenon. The exchange was captured on high-definition electro-optical/infrared (EO/IR) sensor, the Reaper standard.

The video was obtained by Rep. Eric Burlison (R-Missouri) from a military whistleblower and presented publicly for the first time on September 9, 2025, at the U.S. House Task Force on the Declassification of Federal Secrets hearing titled 'Restoring Public Trust Through UAP Transparency and Whistleblower Protection.' Burlison stated that an independent review was ongoing at the time of the hearing. The Department of Defense did not issue a public statement about this incident.

The most serious prosaic explanation comes from within the scientific field itself. Harvard astrophysicist Avi Loeb, far from endorsing an exotic origin, publicly argued that the object is most likely an Iranian-made Samad attack drone operated by the Houthis: its apparent size —a few meters— matches that UAV family, and a Samad, with a mass of about 200 kg (several times that of the Hellfire), would explain the missile 'bouncing off' and shearing only fragments if the impact fuze failed or the angle was oblique. The context reinforces this: on October 29, 2024, the day before the incident, the Houthis announced a multi-drone attack against southern Israel. A Hellfire fuze failure against a real drone is a known and far less extraordinary event than an anomalous material property. The case is therefore genuinely open: high-quality military video and a documented armed engagement, set against a strong conventional hypothesis that the independent review has not yet ruled out.

Part 02

Why this case moved the needle

The Yemen 2024 incident is the first case in the corpus with evidence of a direct armed engagement between a standard weapons system (Hellfire) and an unidentified object, recorded on high-definition military sensor and disclosed at a U.S. congressional hearing. Its importance is twofold. First, it marks an institutional threshold: for the first time it becomes public that MQ-9 platforms are reportedly being used to engage unidentified aerial targets, which in itself —apart from the orb's nature— is a significant operational revelation. Second, the documented outcome (deflection without detonation, deformation, sub-object shedding) would be, if genuinely anomalous, category-breaking evidence about the material properties of the phenomenon.

But the corpus reads this case with deliberate caution, and therefore places it at Tier A rather than S. The prosaic hypothesis is strong and comes from a critical scientist, not a believer: the orb matches an Iranian Samad Houthi drone in size and dynamics, and a Hellfire fuze failure is a known event. The combat zone, which on one reading rules out natural phenomena and civilian targets, on another reading raises the probability that the object is precisely an enemy drone. Decisively, the video's authenticity and context rest on a whistleblower and on an independent review that, as of this record, remained ongoing and without official validation. The case is a real-time calibration test: maximal potential load, provenance not yet secured.

Part 03

What's left on paper

Documented evidence

  1. MQ-9 EO/IR video with timestamp (~04:17Z, Oct 30, 2024) showing the complete missile-orb exchange
  2. Buddy lasing technique confirmed: two coordinated MQ-9s, cross-aircraft designation prior to firing
  3. AGM-114 Hellfire missile deflects without detonating: a physically anomalous outcome against any known target
  4. Object deforms and tumbles post-impact, shedding sub-objects — behavior inconsistent with conventional structures
  5. Video presented at a U.S. congressional hearing (House Oversight Task Force, Sep 9, 2025) by Rep. Burlison

Location

Red Sea, off the western coast of Yemen · 14.80°, 42.00°

Distribution of explanations

This case is classified among the model's hypotheses: the bar splits 100% by how much each explanation weighs (the uncertainty is spread across the hypotheses the case supports). Summed across the corpus they produce the comparable partition. It is a different question from the Probability above: that one estimates how likely the case is a genuinely unexplained phenomenon; this one splits which the explanation would be.

Adversary technology32%
Misidentification26%
Non-human + state cover-up17%
Non-human, no state management14%
Classified human technology11%

Modal hypothesis: Adversary technology 32% · sums to 100%

Structured analytical judgment, not a calibrated frequency. Forced classification: the mass the evidence cannot assign is spread across the hypotheses the case does support.

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Associated actors (2)