Case No. 40·Chile
2010·Santiago, Chile
Chile.El Bosque, Chile (CEFAA)
During a FACh air parade at El Bosque (Santiago), nobody noticed anything live; on later reviewing the footage, an engineer spotted an object crossing at high speed between the squadrons. CEFAA gathered seven independent videos, commissioned a photogrammetric analysis that estimated very high speeds, and classified the case as anomalous. Later analyses proposed an insect near the lens.
Year
2010
Tier
A
Probability
55%
Category
Incident
Institutional evidence: multiple verifiable witnesses or official documentation. Three independent axes: the «tier» measures the strength of the evidence; the «probability» estimates how genuinely unexplained the case is —a natural phenomenon can remain unexplained, so it does not equal «non-prosaic»—; and the partition of explanations (below) says what it most plausibly was. So a well-documented case can have a possible hoax as its most plausible cause, and a Tier B is not, for that reason, a hoax.
Part 01
The night in question
On November 4, 2010, the Chilean Air Force (FACh) held an air parade at El Bosque Air Base in Santiago, with squadrons in formation and aerobatic maneuvers before the public. A key detail of the case is that during the event nobody reported seeing anything anomalous: the object was not perceived live. Weeks later, an engineer at a nearby aeronautical company, reviewing footage of the display to pick a promotional image, noticed in the background of one shot an object crossing the frame at notable speed. On alerting the authorities, a search for other recordings began.
General (Ret.) Ricardo Bermúdez, director of the Committee for the Study of Anomalous Aerial Phenomena (CEFAA) —the official Chilean body under the Directorate General of Civil Aeronautics (DGAC)— ordered an investigation. CEFAA gathered seven independent videos of the same display, filmed by different people from different vantage points, and convened a multidisciplinary panel: the FACh's Aerophotogrammetric Service, plus consultations with U.S. researchers Richard Haines and the optical physicist Bruce Maccabee.
The analysis Bermúdez presented in 2012 estimated the object moving between the formations at speeds far above those of the show aircraft —on the order of several times that of the aerobatic squadrons— a figure that, if correct, would be incompatible with any operational manned aircraft in 2010. Bermúdez argued that the fact that several videos taken from different angles captured an object in the same scene tilted against an insect. CEFAA officially classified the event as 'anomalous'.
The dominant skeptical explanation, however, was never refuted: subsequent independent analyses converged on the object being an insect flying near the lens. The argument is technically sound: the very-high-speed calculation presupposes the object is far away and large, a distance no datum in the case establishes; a small, very close object produces the same fast blur at a low real speed. Examined frame by frame, the various videos do not conclusively show the same synchronized object —they could be different insects in each camera— and no radar at the base recorded anything. It is the case where Chilean institutional transparency and the entomological explanation collide head-on without resolution.
Part 02
Why this case moved the needle
El Bosque stands out less for the strength of the object than for the quality of the process: a national state agency (CEFAA/DGAC) gathered multiple independent recordings, convened a technical panel, commissioned photogrammetry and published its verdict. That methodological transparency —rare among governments on UAP matters— is the case's real contribution and a standard few institutions have matched.
But the case is also a cautionary lesson about photogrammetry without distance data. The 'anomalous' conclusion and the several-Mach speed rest on an unmeasured assumption —that the object was far away— and the near-lens insect explanation accounts for the data more economically. That is why the corpus weighs the principal contribution toward the misidentification hypothesis: not because CEFAA acted in bad faith, but because the analysis did not rule out the prosaic null hypothesis. The official 'anomalous' classification remains on the record as an open institutional-skeptic disagreement, and the case illustrates how an exemplary process can still over-interpret a trivial optical artifact.
There is a broader methodological warning here that applies well beyond Chile. The 'multiple independent videos' argument feels powerful but does not survive scrutiny: if the cause is insects near each separate lens, multiplicity proves only that bugs are common at outdoor events, not that a single craft was present. Robust corroboration requires that the records resolve to the same object in space and time, which frame-by-frame review did not establish. El Bosque thus earns its place in the corpus less as evidence for an anomaly and more as a teaching case about the difference between converging witnesses and converging artifacts —a distinction the most rigorous UAP analysis must always make.
Part 03
What's left on paper
Documented evidence
- Seven independent videos from different angles of the air show (object not seen live, found on later footage review)
- CEFAA photogrammetric analysis with very high estimated speed (dependent on an unmeasured distance assumption)
- Official 'anomalous' classification by CEFAA / DGAC Chile
- Public presentation of the analysis by General Bermúdez (2012)
Sources
- CEFAA / DGAC Chile — El Bosque case file (2012)
- Maccabee, B. — Independent analysis El Bosque footage — Optical physicist, civilian investigation
- Open Minds TV — CEFAA Press Conference 2012 — International coverage
Patterns it exhibits (1)
Location
Santiago, Chile · -33.46°, -70.69°
Distribution of explanations
This case is classified among the model's hypotheses: the bar splits 100% by how much each explanation weighs (the uncertainty is spread across the hypotheses the case supports). Summed across the corpus they produce the comparable partition. It is a different question from the Probability above: that one estimates how likely the case is a genuinely unexplained phenomenon; this one splits which the explanation would be.
Modal hypothesis: Misidentification 85% · sums to 100%
Confused with: No single object identified
Structured analytical judgment, not a calibrated frequency. Forced classification: the mass the evidence cannot assign is spread across the hypotheses the case does support.
Related cases
Associated actors (2)