Case No. 294·United States
2022·Cheyenne Mountain / Fort Carson, Colorado Springs (Colorado)
United States.Colorado Springs 2022 · object over Cheyenne Mountain (FBI/IC, PURSUE)
On February 15, 2022, at 09:35 (Mountain Time), five U.S. Army service members at Fort Carson observed an airborne object over Cheyenne Mountain (Colorado Springs), home to NORAD's hardened command complex. PURSUE declassified the file in its third tranche (Release 03, June 12, 2026): an FBI FD-302 (interview), an FD-1057 (internal UAP report), a digital rendering of the object, and an intelligence-community analysis (ICA-UAP-D001). The assessment concluded the object was 'possibly backscattering of sunlight', but with 'low confidence' — a combination that leaves the case formally unresolved. Its value is institutional provenance and analytical honesty, not a proven anomaly.
Year
2022
Tier
B
Probability
30%
Category
Incident
Limited evidence: single-witness, local or without primary verification. Three independent axes: the «tier» measures the strength of the evidence; the «probability» estimates how genuinely unexplained the case is —a natural phenomenon can remain unexplained, so it does not equal «non-prosaic»—; and the partition of explanations (below) says what it most plausibly was. So a well-documented case can have a possible hoax as its most plausible cause, and a Tier B is not, for that reason, a hoax.
Primary documents · viewer
FBI-UAP-D001 — FD-302, Unresolved UAP Report, Colorado Springs (2022)
FBI (PURSUE Release 03) · Dominio público · US Government work · open original
FBI-UAP-D002 — FD-1057, Unresolved UAP Report, Colorado Springs (2022)
FBI (PURSUE Release 03) · Dominio público · US Government work · open original
FBI-UAP-D003 — digital rendering of the object, Colorado Springs (2022)
FBI (PURSUE Release 03) · Dominio público · US Government work · open original
ICA-UAP-D001 — intelligence analysis of the Colorado Springs incident
Intelligence Community (PURSUE Release 03) · Dominio público · US Government work · open original
Part 01
The night in question
On February 15, 2022, at 09:35 (Mountain Time), five U.S. Army service members stationed at Fort Carson (Colorado) observed an unidentified airborne object over the Cheyenne Mountain area, on the outskirts of Colorado Springs. The location is not trivial: Cheyenne Mountain houses the hardened underground complex of NORAD / Cheyenne Mountain Space Force Station, one of the country's most sensitive command and early-warning nodes, and Fort Carson is a large adjacent Army base. An anomalous object over that airspace carries, by context, a security reading that a sighting over open country would not.
The episode was documented in the federal system with several pieces that PURSUE declassified in its third tranche (Release 03, June 12, 2026): an FBI FD-302 —the standard format an FBI agent uses to record an interview or statement—, an FD-1057 (the Bureau's internal electronic communication containing the UAP report), a digital rendering of the object reconstructed from the testimonies, and an intelligence-community analysis (ICA-UAP-D001, four pages).
The core of the file is the analytical assessment, and it is worth quoting precisely because it sets the tone. The analysis concluded that the airborne object over Cheyenne Mountain, observed by the five service members at 0935 on February 15, 2022, was 'possibly backscattering of sunlight' —that is, an optical artifact produced by the scattering of sunlight—, but the document itself qualifies that conclusion with 'low confidence'. That combination —a plausible prosaic explanation held with low confidence— is exactly what keeps the case in the unresolved category.
The calibrated reading starts from that self-assessment. Sunlight backscattering is a real mechanism: in certain sun-observer geometries, atmospheric particles, ice crystals or the optics of the eye or a camera can generate luminous points or halos that a trained witness interprets as a solid object. It is a plausible mundane cause for a daytime sighting with no corroborating instrumentation: the file includes no published radar or telemetry. But the 'low confidence' with which the intelligence community itself holds that hypothesis prevents closing it: five military witnesses, at a maximally sensitive site, saw something the analyst could not explain with certainty. The case's value lies in that documented tension, not in a proven anomaly.
Part 02
Why this case moved the needle
The Colorado Springs file matters for its provenance and analytical honesty more than for its phenomenal content. It is a modern, well-chained institutional case: five military witnesses, FBI documentation (FD-302 + FD-1057), a visual reconstruction, and a formal intelligence-community analysis, all over one of the most sensitive command sites in the United States. That chain of custody is precisely what the corpus values.
But its main lesson is methodological. The analysis itself offers a mundane explanation —sunlight backscattering— and, instead of presenting it as a verdict, flags it with 'low confidence'. That candor is uncommon and exemplary: it acknowledges that a phenomenon can be probably prosaic and, at the same time, remain formally unresolved for lack of data. The case thus calibrates two opposite errors: neither inflating it as evidence of something non-human (it is not), nor closing it as a 'solved case' (the agency itself does not close it). It belongs to the bulk of the phenomenon: sincere sightings, by credible witnesses, over sensitive infrastructure, that the best available assessment leaves at a 'possibly, with low confidence'.
Part 03
What's left on paper
Documented evidence
- Sighting on February 15, 2022, 09:35 Mountain Time, over Cheyenne Mountain (Colorado Springs), home to NORAD's command complex
- Five witnesses: U.S. Army service members stationed at Fort Carson (Colorado)
- FBI documentation: FD-302 (interview/statement) and FD-1057 (electronic communication with the UAP report)
- Digital rendering of the object reconstructed from the testimonies (FBI-UAP-D003)
- Intelligence-community analysis (ICA-UAP-D001): 'possibly backscattering of sunlight', with 'low confidence'
- Declassified in PURSUE Release 03 (war.gov/UFO, June 12, 2026); no published radar or telemetry in the file
Sources
- war.gov/UFO — expediente Colorado Springs 2022 (FBI-UAP-D001/002/003 + ICA-UAP-D001, PURSUE Release 03) — FD-302, FD-1057, digital representation and intelligence analysis (object over Cheyenne Mountain, Feb 15, 2022).
- war.gov/UFO — índice oficial PURSUE Release 03 (12 jun 2026) — Department of War portal; the 4 documents are embedded in this case's viewer.
Patterns it exhibits (1)
Location
Cheyenne Mountain / Fort Carson, Colorado Springs (Colorado) · 38.74°, -104.85°
Distribution of explanations
This case is classified among the model's hypotheses: the bar splits 100% by how much each explanation weighs (the uncertainty is spread across the hypotheses the case supports). Summed across the corpus they produce the comparable partition. It is a different question from the Probability above: that one estimates how likely the case is a genuinely unexplained phenomenon; this one splits which the explanation would be.
Modal hypothesis: Misidentification 76% · sums to 100%
Confused with: No single object identified
Structured analytical judgment, not a calibrated frequency. Forced classification: the mass the evidence cannot assign is spread across the hypotheses the case does support.
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