Case No. 340·United States
2026·Sensitive national security site, western U.S. (undisclosed location)
United States.The mechanical watch that ran 25 minutes fast
Over the course of one night in 2026, two employees of a federal site in the western U.S. —on area-reconnaissance duty— spent hours observing a sequence of red lights: one that split into 6 to 10 synchronized lights, three-light clusters in a triangular pattern that 'never separated, as if attached to the same object,' and ground-level lights that closed to within 200 meters. Both witnesses, interviewed separately by the FBI, corroborated the account — and one unusual detail: one man's mechanical watch, which had never drifted more than a minute in five years, ended the night 25 minutes fast relative to every digital clock nearby.
Year
2026
Tier
A
Probability
45%
Category
Incident
Institutional evidence: multiple verifiable witnesses or official documentation. Three independent axes: the «tier» measures the strength of the evidence; the «probability» estimates how genuinely unexplained the case is —a natural phenomenon can remain unexplained, so it does not equal «non-prosaic»—; and the partition of explanations (below) says what it most plausibly was. So a well-documented case can have a possible hoax as its most plausible cause, and a Tier B is not, for that reason, a hoax.
Primary documents · viewer
FBI-UAP-D037 — FD-302, primary witness statement (in-person interview)
Federal Bureau of Investigation (PURSUE Release 05) · Dominio público · US Government work · open original
FBI-UAP-D040 — FD-302, second witness statement (telephonic interview)
Federal Bureau of Investigation (PURSUE Release 05) · Dominio público · US Government work · open original
FBI-UAP-D038 — digital rendering of the sighting
Federal Bureau of Investigation (PURSUE Release 05) · Dominio público · US Government work · open original
Part 01
The night in question
One night in 2026, two employees of a sensitive federal site in the western United States went out on area-reconnaissance duty. It was raining heavily at the access gate; they waited it out and drove north. About 25 miles in, one of the two —the primary witness, interviewed in person by the FBI— noticed a red light at the crest of the mountain range to the west. He initially thought it was fixed on the mountain, but it began moving east. Since the range stood roughly 5,000 feet and the cloud base was around 7,000, he estimated the object was flying somewhere between those altitudes. About 15 minutes later, 6 to 10 additional lights appeared directly over their position; together with the first, they 'synced up' and traveled east/southeast. One descended rapidly by roughly 1,000 feet before disappearing; the rest continued and faded from view.
To the naked eye and through Night Optical Devices (NODs), the lights appeared as a single point; but on closer observation, or while squinting, each resolved into three separate lights arranged in a triangular or diamond pattern that —per the witness— 'never separated, as if all three lights were attached to the same object.' The witness, with more than 25 years of NOD experience, identified two possible sources of error himself: the 'NOD halo,' a known optical artifact when viewing a light source through the equipment, and his own astigmatism, which could explain why the lights appeared 'dash-shaped' to the naked eye but triangular through the optics. Hours later, near midnight, both witnesses observed two additional ground-level lights close to within roughly 200-300 meters of their position —one hovering barely six feet off the ground— while a third, a fast-moving streak of light like a sparkler or moving flashlight, emerged from a dry creek bed about 100 meters behind them.
The second witness, interviewed by phone in a separate FD-302, independently corroborated the core sequence: the initial red light, the split into 6 to 10 synchronized lights, one's rapid descent, the triangular three-light clusters that 'moved in tandem and never separated,' and the ground-level lights near midnight. Neither witness reported sound, an exhaust trail, or success capturing the objects with thermal optics. The most singular detail surfaced at the end of the night: comparing the time, the primary witness's mechanical analog watch —which had gone five years without drifting more than 60-90 seconds and had been checked accurate that very afternoon— read 25 minutes ahead of his phone, the vehicle clock, and the second witness's digital watch, all three of which agreed with each other. The witness did not reset the watch over the following 24 hours: it kept accurate time going forward but stayed 25 minutes fast. The second witness described his colleague as meticulous ('squared away'), someone for whom miscalibrated gear would be unthinkable. Neither reported physical effects, fear, or anxiety — only curiosity, something both found notable in hindsight given their professional backgrounds.
Part 02
Why this case moved the needle
This file combines two traits that rarely coincide in the corpus: an exceptionally self-critical witness and near-immediate independent corroboration. The primary witness doesn't just describe what he saw — he actively names the two most plausible mundane explanations for his own experience, the NOD halo and his astigmatism, before an investigator has to raise them. That willingness to self-question, combined with 25 years of hands-on equipment experience, raises the testimony's epistemic quality well above average, and is the main reason `mundanoType` sits at `misid` with considerable weight (0.35): the account's own structure surfaces identifiable optical-perception gaps, not just hypothetical ones.
What the calibration can't discount as easily is the corroboration: a second witness, interviewed separately and by phone —with no apparent opportunity to coordinate details with the investigator beforehand— independently reproduces the core sequence of the sighting, including the light count, the triangular pattern, and above all the watch anomaly. That detail is the hardest to wave away with a purely optical explanation: a mechanical watch doesn't suffer NOD halos or astigmatism. If the account is accurate, something external altered an analog spring-driven mechanism within a matter of hours — an electromagnetic anomaly, a retrospective misremembering of when the watch was last checked, or an ordinary mechanical coincidence are, in that order, the most plausible readings, none of them confirmable with what's available.
Pattern `8b` (mother object + sub-objects) fits the account's recurring structure: a single light multiplying into 6-10, and three-light clusters behaving as one unit. Pattern `8k` (electromagnetic interference) is reserved specifically for the watch anomaly, not the lights themselves. The posterior leaves the largest mass on `indet` (0.35) because, once the fraction well-explained by optical artifacts is discounted, neither the sighting's structure nor the watch detail closes out with a single demonstrated cause — the case remains, honestly, open.
Part 03
What's left on paper
Documented evidence
- Primary witness observes a red light on a mountain ridge splitting into 6-10 'synced up' lights traveling east/southeast; one descends ~1,000 feet and disappears
- Each light, viewed closely or while squinting, resolves into three lights in a triangular/diamond pattern 'as if attached to the same object'
- The witness self-identifies two possible sources of error: the 'NOD halo' optical artifact and his own astigmatism
- Second witness, interviewed separately by phone, independently corroborates the sighting's core sequence
- Ground-level lights (one hovering ~6 feet up) close to within 200-300 meters of the witnesses near midnight
- Primary witness's mechanical watch (5 years without drifting >90 seconds) ends the night 25 minutes fast relative to every digital clock present, and stays that way 24 hours later
Sources
- war.gov/UFO — FBI-UAP-D037, FD-302 del testigo principal (PURSUE Release 05) — Document embedded in this case's viewer.
- war.gov/UFO — FBI-UAP-D040, FD-302 del segundo testigo (PURSUE Release 05) — Document embedded in this case's viewer.
Patterns it exhibits (2)
Location
Sensitive national security site, western U.S. (undisclosed location) · 39.00°, -116.00°
Distribution of explanations
This case is classified among the model's hypotheses: the bar splits 100% by how much each explanation weighs (the uncertainty is spread across the hypotheses the case supports). Summed across the corpus they produce the comparable partition. It is a different question from the Probability above: that one estimates how likely the case is a genuinely unexplained phenomenon; this one splits which the explanation would be.
Modal hypothesis: Misidentification 54% · sums to 100%
Structured analytical judgment, not a calibrated frequency. Forced classification: the mass the evidence cannot assign is spread across the hypotheses the case does support.
Related cases