Case No. 230·Iraq
2018·Joint operations base, Iraq
Iraq.'Jellyfish' Video · Iraq
In 2018, an infrared sensor at a joint military base in Iraq captured a 'jellyfish'-shaped object that overflew the installation, descended over water and, according to journalist Jeremy Corbell who leaked the video in January 2024, submerged before re-emerging and departing. The Pentagon neither confirmed nor denied the footage's authenticity.
Year
2018
Tier
B
Probability
34%
Category
Incident
Limited evidence: single-witness, local or without primary verification. Three independent axes: the «tier» measures the strength of the evidence; the «probability» estimates how genuinely unexplained the case is —a natural phenomenon can remain unexplained, so it does not equal «non-prosaic»—; and the partition of explanations (below) says what it most plausibly was. So a well-documented case can have a possible hoax as its most plausible cause, and a Tier B is not, for that reason, a hoax.
Part 01
The night in question
The footage, popularly known as the 'jellyfish video' (jellyfish UAP), was made public by investigative journalist Jeremy Corbell in early January 2024, although by his account the recording dated to 2018 and came from a U.S. joint operations base in Iraq. The released clip, in black and white and captured with a thermal/infrared sensor (FLIR), shows an irregular shape with hanging appendages evoking the tentacles of a jellyfish, moving slowly over the installation.
According to Corbell, the short video is a fragment of a much longer recording —about 30 minutes— in which the object overflies the sensitive base, moves toward a nearby body of water, performs what he describes as a controlled descent and submerges, staying underwater for about 17 minutes before re-emerging and departing at high speed. If true, that sequence would imply a 'transmedium' (air-water) capability, one of the most extraordinary and least verified traits attributed to the phenomenon. Corbell further claims the object was officially classified as a UAP and that the material was reviewed in intelligence channels.
The Department of Defense's response was characteristically ambiguous: spokesperson Sue Gough stated that 'we do not comment on the authenticity of alleged DoD material that may have been leaked', a formula that neither validates nor denies. Partial corroborating testimony appeared: Michael Cincoski, identified as an intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance tactical controller stationed at the Iraqi base in 2018, said he had seen the full video and maintained that it was taken from an aerostat —a tethered blimp-like balloon used for perimeter surveillance— and that personnel did not know what to make of the image.
It is important to delimit the verifiable. What exists in the public domain is a short clip, of officially unconfirmed provenance, presented by a popularizer with a track record of leaking genuine military material (he is the same journalist who released the 'Gimbal', 'GoFast' and USS Russell pyramid-orb videos, later acknowledged as authentic by the Pentagon). The chain of custody, metadata, exact geolocation and the full 30-minute recording have not been published or independently confirmed. The case therefore lives on the border between a potentially significant leak and a piece impossible to audit with the available material.
Part 02
Why this case moved the needle
The 'jellyfish video' matters for what it represents more than for what it proves: it is a clear example of the unauthorized-disclosure-channels pattern (8r), in which presumed military material reaches the public through a journalist rather than by official release, and the institution responds with a calculated non-confirmation that keeps ambiguity alive without bearing any cost. That the same popularizer previously leaked videos later acknowledged as authentic raises the case above the noise, but does not make it evidence: the strongest claim —the transmedium behavior, the 17-minute submersion— rests entirely on footage that has not been published.
That is why the posterior splits between indeterminacy and mundane readings, with a smaller mass for exotic hypotheses. The infrared 'jellyfish' shape is exactly the kind of image thermal artifacts produce easily: a mylar balloon, a hot object with a wake, a bird or a cluster of airborne debris can generate irregular silhouettes with 'appendages' when seen through a low-resolution FLIR sensor, and the witness himself points to an aerostat as the capture platform, which introduces parallax and optical artifacts. The possibility of an own program (an experimental drone, a surveillance sensor) also cannot be ruled out at an active base. The mass the case grants to the non-human is real but modest, conditional on the full recording existing and surviving analysis —something we cannot verify today. Its place in the corpus is as a borderline case of the leak era: significant as a media-institutional phenomenon, insufficient as ontological proof.
Part 03
What's left on paper
Documented evidence
- Black-and-white infrared (FLIR) clip of a jellyfish-shaped object, released by Jeremy Corbell in January 2024
- Corbell's attribution to a U.S. joint operations base in Iraq, year 2018
- Claim of a full ~30-min recording with descent, ~17-min submersion and departure (not published)
- DoD official non-confirmation (spokesperson Sue Gough): 'we do not comment on the authenticity of alleged leaked material'
- Testimony of Michael Cincoski (ISR controller) who says he saw the full video and places the capture on an aerostat
- Prior record of the same journalist leaking videos (Gimbal, GoFast, USS Russell orbs) later acknowledged as authentic
Patterns it exhibits (2)
Location
Joint operations base, Iraq · 33.32°, 44.37°
Distribution of explanations
This case is classified among the model's hypotheses: the bar splits 100% by how much each explanation weighs (the uncertainty is spread across the hypotheses the case supports). Summed across the corpus they produce the comparable partition. It is a different question from the Probability above: that one estimates how likely the case is a genuinely unexplained phenomenon; this one splits which the explanation would be.
Modal hypothesis: Misidentification 55% · sums to 100%
Confused with: No single object identified
Structured analytical judgment, not a calibrated frequency. Forced classification: the mass the evidence cannot assign is spread across the hypotheses the case does support.
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