Case No. 42·Chile
2014·Coast of Chile
Chile.Chilean Navy helicopter
A Chilean Navy Cougar helicopter filmed nine minutes of infrared video of an object visible only in thermal imaging off Valparaíso; CEFAA ran a two-year multi-agency investigation and officially published the footage and report in 2017.
Year
2014
Tier
A
Probability
55%
Category
Incident
Institutional evidence: multiple verifiable witnesses or official documentation. Three independent axes: the «tier» measures the strength of the evidence; the «probability» estimates how genuinely unexplained the case is —a natural phenomenon can remain unexplained, so it does not equal «non-prosaic»—; and the partition of explanations (below) says what it most plausibly was. So a well-documented case can have a possible hoax as its most plausible cause, and a Tier B is not, for that reason, a hoax.
Primary documents · viewer

Context · Valparaíso Bay (Chile)
La ciudad de Valparaíso desde el Cerro Artillería, Chile 2019.jpg · Wikimedia Commons · CC BY-SA 4.0 · open original
Part 01
The night in question
On November 11, 2014, around 13:00, a Chilean Navy AS532 Cougar helicopter was on a training flight at approximately 4,500 feet off the coast of Valparaíso. The crew —a captain pilot and a technician operator— detected with the WESCAM MX-15 system, a gyro-stabilized camera with an infrared (FLIR) channel, an object roughly 55 km to the north. The operator filmed it for 9 minutes and 12 seconds continuous before losing it.
In the video, the object —clearly visible only in infrared— displayed an elongated shape with what looked like lateral appendages, a speed and heading estimated as compatible with conventional air traffic, and, at two moments, intense thermal discharges emitted to the sides (the celebrated hot 'plumes'). The object finally entered a cloud formation, where contact was lost. The crew was unable to make a naked-eye visual observation despite a clear sky between the helicopter and the object — a key detail that both the anomalous and the prosaic readings use.
The Navy referred the material to CEFAA (Comité de Estudios de Fenómenos Aéreos Anómalos), under the DGAC. The Director General of Civil Aeronautics authorized a formal investigation that ran for more than two years and consulted the DGAC, the Chilean Air Force, the Navy, ENAER, the Chilean Meteorological Directorate, astronomers and physicists. The conclusion published in January 2017 classified the event as an 'anomalous aerial phenomenon' unidentified after institutional evaluation, and CEFAA publicly released the full FLIR video and report. The transparency of the process made the case a reference for how a state can investigate and publish a UAP file.
Editorial honesty requires incorporating what happened after publication. Independent analysts —notably astronomer Andrew Procyk and the Metabunk forum— reconstructed the geometry from the helicopter's position and heading and proposed that the object was a climbing commercial aircraft whose two thermal 'plumes' corresponded to semi-persistent aerodynamic contrails (cooler than the engines, similar in infrared to dense clouds). The candidate most consistent with the trajectory, time and position was Iberia flight IB6830, a four-engine aircraft departing Santiago; the two trails fit an aircraft with four engines grouped in pairs. CEFAA did not update its conclusion, but this conventional explanation was never technically refuted.
Part 02
Why this case moved the needle
The case is valuable, above all, for its methodological transparency, not for its discriminating power. It brings together four traits rarely found in combination: nine continuous minutes of military FLIR video from a naval helicopter; a formal multi-agency investigation (CEFAA, DGAC, Air Force, Navy, meteorology, academia) sustained for more than two years; the full public release of the material and report by a government agency; and an official classification of 'anomalous aerial phenomenon' unidentified. As an exercise in public governance over a UAP file, it is an international reference: Chile showed that a state can investigate and then release the material without classifying it in perpetuity.
But editorial honesty requires separating transparency from evidence. Two structural weaknesses keep the prosaic reading alive. The first is the absence of concurrent visual detection despite the clear sky: the same gap that allowed the famous 2004 Mexican Air Force FLIR case to be resolved as gas burners at the Cantarell field. The second is that the speed and heading were compatible with conventional air traffic. The later independent analysis, which identified a four-engine Iberia aircraft (IB6830) with aerodynamic contrails as a candidate consistent with the geometry, was never technically refuted by CEFAA. This does not prove the explanation correct —there is no airline-record confirmation in the official report— but it does illustrate the limit of single-sensor detection: a long-range FLIR, without correlated radar or a second perspective, cannot confidently distinguish an anomalous object from a distant aircraft with a deceptive thermal signature. The case's contribution is therefore minimal in any exotic direction and maximal as a model of institutional process.
Part 03
What's left on paper
Documented evidence
- 9 min 12 sec of official Chilean Navy WESCAM MX-15 FLIR video
- January 2017 CEFAA report with multi-agency analysis
- Two lateral thermal discharges documented in specific frames
- No concurrent visual detection despite clear sky
Sources
- CEFAA / DGAC Chile — Caso 11N (2017)
- Huff Post coverage of CEFAA release
- Maccabee, B. — Análisis técnico complementario — Retired optical physicist, Naval Surface Warfare Center
Patterns it exhibits (1)
Location
Coast of Chile · -33.00°, -71.60°
Distribution of explanations
This case is classified among the model's hypotheses: the bar splits 100% by how much each explanation weighs (the uncertainty is spread across the hypotheses the case supports). Summed across the corpus they produce the comparable partition. It is a different question from the Probability above: that one estimates how likely the case is a genuinely unexplained phenomenon; this one splits which the explanation would be.
Modal hypothesis: Misidentification 82% · sums to 100%
Confused with: Aircraft
Structured analytical judgment, not a calibrated frequency. Forced classification: the mass the evidence cannot assign is spread across the hypotheses the case does support.
Related cases
Associated actors (2)