Case No. 80·United States

2014–2015·Atlantic, U.S. East Coast (Virginia–Florida)

United States.USS Theodore Roosevelt (Gimbal/GoFast)

F/A-18 pilots from the USS Theodore Roosevelt air wing log near-daily UAP contacts off the U.S. East Coast (summer 2014–March 2015), confirmed by radar, infrared and visual. The Gimbal and GoFast videos come from these sorties. Ryan Graves reports a near-miss and files formal flight-safety complaints.

Year

2014–2015

Tier

S

Probability

80%

Category

Incident

Strong evidence: instrumental sensor record + multiple witnesses (typically military). Three independent axes: the «tier» measures the strength of the evidence; the «probability» estimates how genuinely unexplained the case is —a natural phenomenon can remain unexplained, so it does not equal «non-prosaic»—; and the partition of explanations (below) says what it most plausibly was. So a well-documented case can have a possible hoax as its most plausible cause, and a Tier B is not, for that reason, a hoax.

Primary documents · viewer

GIMBAL video — object rotating above the clouds off Jacksonville, crew mentions 'a whole fleet' on radar (Jan 20, 2015)

US Navy, oficialmente desclasificado por el Pentágono (abril 2020), vía DVIDS · Dominio público · US Government work · open original

GOFAST video — object moving at low altitude over the Atlantic Ocean

US Navy, oficialmente desclasificado por el Pentágono (abril 2020), vía DVIDS · Dominio público · US Government work · open original

Contexto · el portaaviones USS Theodore Roosevelt, cuyos pilotos registraron los objetos (Gimbal/GoFast)

Context · the carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt, whose pilots recorded the objects (Gimbal/GoFast)

USS Theodore Roosevelt at sea.jpg · Wikimedia Commons · Dominio público · open original

Part 01

The years in question

Between the summer of 2014 and March 2015, while the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier air wing trained in the Atlantic warning areas off the U.S. East Coast —between Virginia and Florida— F/A-18 Super Hornet crews began logging unidentified objects almost daily. The operational trigger, according to the pilots, was the upgrade of the Super Hornets' APG-79 AESA radars: after the update, crews began systematically seeing contacts that earlier might have been dismissed as noise or artifacts. The contacts appeared simultaneously on radar, on the ATFLIR infrared sensor and, in some cases, to the pilots' eyes. The objects showed no control surfaces, wings or visible exhaust, and held station against 100-knot-plus winds or accelerated beyond what the crews could match; some remained aloft for hours, incompatible with the endurance of any known aircraft of that size.

Lieutenant Ryan Graves, of squadron VFA-11 'Red Rippers', was one of the pilots who systematically reported the contacts and filed formal flight-safety complaints, after a squadron-mate passed so close to one of the objects that he filed a mid-air collision hazard report; the object was described as 'a cube inside a transparent sphere', in Warning Area W-72. From these same sorties came two recordings that would later go public: GIMBAL —filmed on 20 January 2015 off Jacksonville, Florida, showing an object rotating above the clouds as the crew, audible on the recording, remarks on 'a whole fleet' of objects on radar and notes it is moving against the wind— and GOFAST, showing an object moving fast at low altitude over the ocean.

On 16 December 2017, The New York Times revealed the Pentagon's AATIP program and published the FLIR (Nimitz) and GIMBAL (Roosevelt) videos; GOFAST circulated shortly after. The Department of Defense officially confirmed the authenticity of all three videos in April 2020. In July 2023, Graves —by then retired and founder of the organization Americans for Safe Aerospace— testified under oath before the House Oversight subcommittee about these encounters and about the absence of a functioning reporting channel for pilots, which for years discouraged the logging of sightings for fear of professional stigma.

Part 02

Why this case moved the needle

Roosevelt is the Atlantic counterpart of Nimitz: persistent military contacts, confirmed by multiple independent sensors, recurring almost daily for months with no resolution. Unlike an isolated sighting, the recurrence makes the case a documented flight-safety problem, not an anecdote. Two of its recordings —Gimbal and GoFast— became, alongside the Nimitz FLIR, the public window that detonated the modern disclosure era. Graves's testimony also exposes the structural failure of the reporting system: pilots seeing objects daily with no formal channel to log them. The case fed directly into the June 2021 ODNI preliminary assessment, which catalogued 144 government-origin UAP reports between 2004 and 2021 and acknowledged that most 'probably do represent physical objects' that remain unexplained, without attributing them to any power or to non-human technology.

Analytical honesty requires separating the robust from the disputed. The robust part is the sustained multi-sensor recurrence and the flight-safety problem: that does not hinge on the interpretation of any single frame. The disputed part is the evidential force of the two videos. On GOFAST, several analysts (including skeptic-communicator Mick West) have shown that the camera geometry and the triangulation of the HUD data are consistent with a small, relatively slow object at low altitude, not extraordinary speed — the impression of great velocity would be a parallax effect against the sea. On GIMBAL, the object's striking rotation may stem partly from the stabilization mechanism of the ATFLIR sensor itself (the gimbal that gives the video its name) rather than from a maneuver by the object. The pilots and other analysts counter that these readings do not explain the behavior observed by eye nor the stationary persistence against strong wind. None of these objections refutes the case as a whole, but they do prevent treating the videos alone as conclusive proof: the weight of Roosevelt rests on the pattern — hundreds of encounters, independent sensors, qualified witnesses — more than on any individual recording.

Part 03

What's left on paper

Documented evidence

  1. Simultaneous radar, ATFLIR infrared sensor and visual contacts by USS Theodore Roosevelt crews (2014–2015)
  2. GIMBAL video filmed on 20 January 2015 off Jacksonville, Florida
  3. GOFAST video from the same Atlantic sorties
  4. Reported near-miss in Warning Area W-72; formal flight-safety complaints filed by Ryan Graves (VFA-11)
  5. New York Times report (16 Dec 2017) revealing AATIP and publishing the videos
  6. Ryan Graves's sworn testimony before the House Oversight subcommittee (July 2023)

Sources

  1. Ryan Graves — Written Statement, House Oversight Subcommittee on National Security (26 jul 2023)
  2. The New York Times — 'Glowing Auras and ‘Black Money’: The Pentagon's Mysterious U.F.O. Program' (16 dic 2017)
  3. Pentagon UFO videos (FLIR/Gimbal/GoFast) — autenticidad confirmada por el DoD (2020) The Department of Defense confirmed the authenticity of the three videos in April 2020.
  4. DVIDS — videos oficiales GIMBAL y GOFAST (mirror del Pentágono) Both videos are embedded in this case's viewer.
  5. US Navy — formularios «Range Fouler Debrief» (costa este 2019/2020 y Atlántico 2020) Navy standardized UAP reporting forms for aircrew — the institutional mechanism behind the East Coast incursions. AARO UAP Records, release 04 (DOWUAPD089/090/091).

Location

Atlantic, U.S. East Coast (Virginia–Florida) · 31.00°, -79.50°

Distribution of explanations

This case is classified among the model's hypotheses: the bar splits 100% by how much each explanation weighs (the uncertainty is spread across the hypotheses the case supports). Summed across the corpus they produce the comparable partition. It is a different question from the Probability above: that one estimates how likely the case is a genuinely unexplained phenomenon; this one splits which the explanation would be.

Classified human technology23%
Non-human + state cover-up23%
Misidentification20%
Adversary technology20%
Non-human, no state management14%

Modal hypothesis: Classified human technology 23% · sums to 100%

Structured analytical judgment, not a calibrated frequency. Forced classification: the mass the evidence cannot assign is spread across the hypotheses the case does support.

Related cases

Associated actors (2)