Case No. 295·United States

2021–2026·Northeastern US (exact location redacted)

United States.Northeastern US orbs · FBI file corroborated by agents (PURSUE)

Seven FBI documents declassified in PURSUE Release 03 (June 12, 2026) make up a single file: repeated 'orb' observations in the Northeastern US over years (~2021-2024), near a residence whose location is redacted. Five FD-1057s (2024) and two FD-302s (2026) capture the witness account —'plasma orbs', a 'red sphere' below the tree line, objects moving laterally, caught on a home camera— and, unusually, corroboration by FBI special agents who observed the activity on-site in 2024 with full line of sight. Heavily redacted material, no published radar or telemetry; the morphology matches the Northeastern drone/UAS wave of that period. Value: qualified testimony and FBI chain of custody, not a proven anomalous origin.

Year

2021–2026

Tier

B

Probability

38%

Category

Incident

Limited evidence: single-witness, local or without primary verification. Three independent axes: the «tier» measures the strength of the evidence; the «probability» estimates how genuinely unexplained the case is —a natural phenomenon can remain unexplained, so it does not equal «non-prosaic»—; and the partition of explanations (below) says what it most plausibly was. So a well-documented case can have a possible hoax as its most plausible cause, and a Tier B is not, for that reason, a hoax.

Primary documents · viewer

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FBI-UAP-D004 — FD-1057-02, UAP observations in the Northeastern US (2024)

FBI (PURSUE Release 03) · Dominio público · US Government work · open original

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FBI-UAP-D005 — FD-1057-04, UAP observations in the Northeastern US (2024)

FBI (PURSUE Release 03) · Dominio público · US Government work · open original

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FBI-UAP-D006 — FD-1057-05, UAP observations in the Northeastern US (2024)

FBI (PURSUE Release 03) · Dominio público · US Government work · open original

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FBI-UAP-D007 — FD-1057-06, UAP observations in the Northeastern US (2024)

FBI (PURSUE Release 03) · Dominio público · US Government work · open original

Show the other 3 documents
  • FBI-UAP-D008 — FD-1057-07, UAP observations in the Northeastern US (2024)

    FBI (PURSUE Release 03) · Dominio público · US Government work · open document

  • FBI-UAP-D009 — FD-302-67, 'Northeastern Orb Sighting' interview (2026)

    FBI (PURSUE Release 03) · Dominio público · US Government work · open document

  • FBI-UAP-D010 — FD-302-71, 'Northeastern Orb Sighting' interview (2026)

    FBI (PURSUE Release 03) · Dominio público · US Government work · open document

Part 01

The years in question

PURSUE released, in its third tranche (Release 03, June 12, 2026), a group of seven FBI documents that make up a single file: repeated 'orb' observations in the Northeastern United States. The exact location is redacted in every piece, but the set traces a coherent pattern: sustained sightings over years of anomalous spheres and lights near a residential property, documented by the FBI in two formats —five FD-1057s (2024), the internal communication format an agent uses to report and process information, and two FD-302s (2026), the formal witness interviews.

The civilian account is consistent. One witness describes 'repeated observations of UAS or UAP appearing as plasma orbs' near their residence; another places the first observation around 2021 and describes activity 'over the last three years', even captured by a fixed camera facing west of the property. The FD-302s add sensory detail: an 'intense, bright light' hovering below the tree line, described as a 'red sphere'; two witnesses seeing the objects move laterally; orbs that 'travel over' a redacted area.

What sets this file apart from one more citizen report is that the agents themselves corroborated it. One of the FD-1057s records that 'special agents [redacted] and [redacted] observed UAP activity' on a date in 2024, with 'full line of sight' and no obstruction, in the vicinity where the witness had reported the activity. That is: FBI personnel, dispatched to verify, saw for themselves what was being reported.

The calibrated reading must hold both the strength and the limits. Corroboration by agents and the multi-year persistence with camera footage raise the case above an isolated sighting. But the material is heavily redacted (locations, names and several dates blacked out), there is no published hard instrumental data (radar, telemetry, video analysis), and the described morphology —spheres and lights moving laterally, at low altitude, near a home— is exactly the signature of the drone and UAS-incursion wave that hit the Northeastern US in that same period. Low-altitude 'plasma' orbs admit anything from drones to misidentified conventional lights. The file attests that the phenomenon was real and observed by qualified witnesses, not that its origin is anomalous.

Part 02

Why this case moved the needle

The Northeastern file matters for the quality of the testimony and the institutional chain, not for an anomalous signature. Its most quotable feature is the corroboration by FBI agents: in a field dominated by single-witness reports, having federal personnel verify on-site and record what they observed in an FD-1057 is a strong provenance datum. The multi-year persistence and the home video add density.

At the same time, the case illustrates the central problem of the 2024-2025 period: a wave of 'orbs' and drones over the Northeastern US that mixed real UAS incursions, misidentified conventional air traffic and genuine uncertainty. With no published telemetry or video analysis —and with the file redacted— the best reading is the prudent one: real, multi-witness activity of indeterminate origin, with the unrecognized drone and misidentification as the strongest prosaic hypotheses. The corpus incorporates it as a primary FBI record, framed with that caution. It is also worth fixing the institutional fact: that the FBI —not a group of hobbyists— opened and processed a file on recurring orbs next to a private home, and that its own agents went out to verify and record it, marks how far UAP reporting has been normalized within law enforcement after the creation of AARO and the opening of formal channels like PURSUE.

Part 03

What's left on paper

Documented evidence

  1. Seven FBI documents from a single file: 5 FD-1057 (2024) + 2 FD-302 (2026), 'Northeastern Orb Sighting'
  2. Repeated 'plasma orb' / sphere observations near a residence (redacted location), since ~2021 and 'over three years'
  3. Fixed home camera that captured UAP activity west of the property
  4. Corroboration by FBI special agents: they observed the activity on-site in 2024 with full line of sight
  5. Descriptions: 'intense light' below the tree line, 'red sphere', lateral movement of the objects
  6. No published radar/telemetry/video analysis; heavily redacted material; morphology consistent with the 2024 Northeastern drone/UAS wave
  7. Declassified in PURSUE Release 03 (war.gov/UFO, June 12, 2026)

Sources

  1. war.gov/UFO — expediente 'Northeastern Orb Sighting' (FBI-UAP-D004 a D010, PURSUE Release 03) Five FD-1057 (2024) and two FD-302 (2026); all seven are embedded in this case's viewer.
  2. war.gov/UFO — índice oficial PURSUE Release 03 (12 jun 2026) Department of War portal.

Patterns it exhibits (1)

Location

Northeastern US (exact location redacted) · 43.00°, -72.00°

Distribution of explanations

This case is classified among the model's hypotheses: the bar splits 100% by how much each explanation weighs (the uncertainty is spread across the hypotheses the case supports). Summed across the corpus they produce the comparable partition. It is a different question from the Probability above: that one estimates how likely the case is a genuinely unexplained phenomenon; this one splits which the explanation would be.

Misidentification57%
Non-human, no state management17%
Classified human technology15%
Adversary technology7%
Non-human + state cover-up4%

Modal hypothesis: Misidentification 57% · sums to 100%

Confused with: Aircraft

Structured analytical judgment, not a calibrated frequency. Forced classification: the mass the evidence cannot assign is spread across the hypotheses the case does support.

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