Case No. 390·United States
Developing1977·44th Missile Wing missile field, Highway 79, south of Rapid City, South Dakota
United States.Ellsworth · Woods and Johnson
Sergeant Mario Woods, of the 44th Missile Security Squadron at Ellsworth AFB, recounts that in 1977 he and his team leader Michael Johnson responded to an alarm at the November-5 silo and encountered an enormous object and small beings, with memory loss. Woods testified to AARO. In 2026 Johnson surfaced and confirmed the object, not the abduction. It must not be confused with the 'Site L-9' document, a hoax proven since 1984.
Year
1977
Tier
B
Probability
20%
Category
Incident
Limited evidence: single-witness, local or without primary verification. Three independent axes: the «tier» measures the strength of the evidence; the «probability» estimates how genuinely unexplained the case is —a natural phenomenon can remain unexplained, so it does not equal «non-prosaic»—; and the partition of explanations (below) says what it most plausibly was. So a well-documented case can have a possible hoax as its most plausible cause, and a Tier B is not, for that reason, a hoax.
Primary documents · viewer

Context · Delta-09 Minuteman launch facility (44th Missile Wing, South Dakota)
Minuteman Missile Delta-09 Missile Silo.jpg · Wikimedia Commons · CC0 · open original
Part 01
The night in question
In 1977 Sergeant Mario Woods served on the Security Response Team of the 44th Missile Security Squadron at Ellsworth Air Force Base (South Dakota), where he was stationed between 1975 and 1983 —the same base the corpus already records for the 1953 radar-and-interceptor incident (↗). By his account, at around 10:45 pm the control center triggered an outer-zone security alarm at one of the launch facilities in the Minuteman missile field: the silo designated November-5. Woods alerted his team leader, Michael Johnson, and the two drove out to check the alarm.
It is worth pinning down what that name means at the outset, because much of the case depends on it: 'November-5' is not a date, it is a facility callsign. The 44th Missile Wing organized its silos into squadrons designated by phonetic-alphabet letters and numbered each squadron's facilities 01 through 11; November-5 is, literally, the fifth site of the November flight. Woods describes that, once on Highway 79, the sky began to brighten to a glow he compares to sunrise, and that rounding a bend they came upon an enormous object hovering just above the ground; his habitual size comparison is a big-box store. From there the account enters classic abduction territory: small grey-skinned beings, an interruption of memory and a jump to finding himself elsewhere, with his partner as shaken as he was. Woods has testified about the episode to AARO, the Pentagon's anomalous phenomena office, and has characterized that appearance as a conversation in which he was briefed on what he could and could not disclose. His most widely circulated public telling was broadcast in April 2025.
A point of documentary hygiene is indispensable here, because anyone searching 'Ellsworth 1977' will find a forged document before anything else. A purported military message dated 16 November 1977 circulates, narrating an intrusion involving beings and damage at a silo called Site L-9. That paper is a proven hoax. Bob Pratt dismantled it in 'The Truth About the Ellsworth Case' (MUFON UFO Journal, January 1984); Tom Deuley, a former atomic weapons communications officer, verified that some of the personnel named were not stationed there and that ranks and names were garbled; Brad Sparks noted that the radiation readings —'1.7 to 2.9 roentgens'— carry a precision no instrument of the period delivered, and that the text confuses dose with rate. The message also lacks the classification a missing warhead would have required and is written, in its reviewers' words, like a news report rather than a nuclear incident report. It spread credited to Warren York, who supplied it to Vangard Sciences claiming he had obtained it through FOIA, without a release stamp, request number or responding agency ever being produced; Sparks named Richard Doty, stationed at Ellsworth between 1977 and 1978, as the prime suspect. NICAP catalogs it as a hoax. And the decisive fact for keeping the two matters apart is that L-9 and November-5 are different installations: Lima-9 and November-5 both belonged to the 68th Missile Squadron, but they are separate sites. Woods' account is not the document, and does not depend on it.
In 2026 the second witness surfaced. A viewer of Jesse Michels' channel located on Facebook a Michael Johnson from South Carolina who had mentioned his time at Ellsworth between 1975 and 1977; a cold call followed in June and, in August, Michels announced the find on Joe Rogan's podcast. The material released is a filmed reunion between the two men half a century later. In it Johnson confirms having seen the object —he recalls it was big, very bright and very close, under fifty feet by his estimate— but in what has been published he does not confirm the abduction episode. It was further announced that Johnson would sit for a full hypnotic regression on camera, and an online fundraiser was opened for both men.
Part 02
Why this case moved the needle
This file enters the corpus not for what it proves about the phenomenon, which is close to nothing, but for a disambiguation job no other case performs. The query 'Ellsworth 1977' returns, in practice, the Site L-9 document, a hoax dismantled since 1984 that still circulates as though it were a declassified file. Mario Woods' account is a separate matter, with an identifiable witness, a verifiable service record and an AARO appearance, and it deserves to be judged on its own merits and its own weaknesses, neither absorbed by the forged paper's reputation nor shielded by it. Separating the two —including the detail that they name different silos— is the work that justifies the entry.
With that separation made, the calibration is severe and should be. The emergence of a second witness sounds like reinforcement and, examined, pushes the other way. Johnson was not located blind: he was reached through a targeted search built on the name Woods had already made public, contacted cold, and filmed in a reunion with the other witness rather than in an independently taken statement. What he corroborates is the banal layer —that there was a large, bright, nearby object— not the extraordinary layer, which still rests on one person. And the announced hypnotic regression is not a promise of future corroboration but a ceiling: any detail emerging from it will be born after weeks of contact between the two men, with the contamination already documented. The corpus has the precedent written down in ↗, where four 'concordant' witnesses who knew each other and shared a hypnotist converged by contagion and one eventually admitted the abduction was invented; here the contamination is prior, public and predates the session.
Also missing is everything that would turn testimony into a file: no service records, duty rosters, control center alarm logs, vehicle records, medical histories supporting the ailments attributed to the episode, or contemporaneous investigation reports have been produced. That is why the posterior loads onto the prosaic narrative and leaves broad indeterminacy, and why the entry does not carry the physical-effects pattern: the corpus reserves that pattern for documented physiological effects, and here they are asserted, not documented. What would move the case is material, not narrative: an alarm log from that night, a duty roster placing both men on the same shift, or a statement from Johnson taken separately before the reunion. The hypnosis session, on its own, will not do it.
Part 03
What's left on paper
Documented evidence
- Mario Woods' USAF service record: Security Response Team, 44th Missile Security Squadron, Ellsworth AFB, 1975-1983
- Woods' appearance before AARO, described by him as conversational and with guidance on what he could disclose
- Woods' public account, sustained across appearances since April 2025
- Filmed testimony of Michael Johnson (2026): confirms a large, very bright, very close object; does not confirm the abduction in the published material
- November-5 identified as a 44th Missile Wing launch facility, distinct from the 'Site L-9' of the forged document
- The Site L-9 document's forgery established by Bob Pratt (MUFON UFO Journal, January 1984), Tom Deuley and Brad Sparks; cataloged as a hoax by NICAP
- Absence of service records, duty rosters, alarm logs, vehicle records, medical histories and contemporaneous investigation reports
Sources
- NICAP — «Ellsworth incident: A Hoax» (catálogo del caso del 16 nov 1977) — Collects Pratt's dismantling, Deuley's personnel checks and Sparks' technical objections to the radiation readings.
- Pratt, Bob — «The Truth About the Ellsworth Case», MUFON UFO Journal, enero de 1984 — Original investigation that established the Site L-9 document as a hoax; no open-access online edition.
- Measured Unknown — «Jesse Michels' Team Says It Found a Second Witness to Mario Woods' 1977 UFO Account» — Critical coverage; lists the documentary material that has not been produced and warns that the value depends on the interview's content, not on the emotion of the reunion.
- Wikipedia — 44th Missile Wing LGM-30 Minuteman Missile Launch Sites — Facility nomenclature: squadrons by phonetic letter and sites 01-11; confirms Lima-9 and November-5 are distinct sites of the 68th Missile Squadron.
- American Alchemy (Jesse Michels) — canal donde se publicó el reencuentro de Woods y Johnson (2026) — Source of the second-witness material; filmed-reunion format, not an independently taken statement.
Patterns it exhibits (2)
Location
44th Missile Wing missile field, Highway 79, south of Rapid City, South Dakota · 43.98°, -103.18°
Distribution of explanations
This case is classified among the model's hypotheses: the bar splits 100% by how much each explanation weighs (the uncertainty is spread across the hypotheses the case supports). Summed across the corpus they produce the comparable partition. It is a different question from the Probability above: that one estimates how likely the case is a genuinely unexplained phenomenon; this one splits which the explanation would be.
Modal hypothesis: Misidentification 69% · sums to 100%
Confused with: No single object identified
Structured analytical judgment, not a calibrated frequency. Forced classification: the mass the evidence cannot assign is spread across the hypotheses the case does support.
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