Case No. 36·United States

2004·Pacific, Baja California

United States.USS Nimitz Tic-Tac

USS Princeton's Aegis radar tracked objects dropping from 80,000 to 20,000 feet in under a second; Cmdr. Fravor and seven other military witnesses observed the 'Tic-Tac', and the ATFLIR video was officially released by the Pentagon. The modern benchmark case.

Year

2004

Tier

S

Probability

80%

Category

Incident

Strong evidence: instrumental sensor record + multiple witnesses (typically military). Three independent axes: the «tier» measures the strength of the evidence; the «probability» estimates how genuinely unexplained the case is —a natural phenomenon can remain unexplained, so it does not equal «non-prosaic»—; and the partition of explanations (below) says what it most plausibly was. So a well-documented case can have a possible hoax as its most plausible cause, and a Tier B is not, for that reason, a hoax.

Primary documents · viewer

ATFLIR 'FLIR1' video — the Tic-Tac object and its abrupt final lateral acceleration, captured by Lt. Chad Underwood

US Navy, oficialmente desclasificado por el Pentágono (abril 2020), vía DVIDS · Dominio público · US Government work · open original

Contexto · el portaaviones USS Nimitz (CVN-68), cuyo grupo de combate registró el objeto Tic-Tac en 2004

Context · the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz (CVN-68), whose battle group tracked the Tic-Tac object in 2004

USS Nimitz (CVN-68) underway at sea, circa in 1978.jpg · Wikimedia Commons · Dominio público · open original

Part 01

The night in question

Between November 10 and 16, 2004, the USS Nimitz Carrier Strike Group 11 was conducting pre-deployment workups in the SOCAL training complex, about 100 miles southwest of San Diego off Baja California. In the days before the main encounter, the guided-missile destroyer USS Princeton (CG-59), equipped with a recently upgraded SPY-1B Aegis radar, intermittently detected multiple returns the crew labeled 'Anomalous Aerial Vehicles' (AAVs): groups of objects that appeared around 80,000 feet, descended to roughly 20,000 feet in about a second, then stopped and held stationary. The Princeton's operator, Chief Petty Officer Kevin Day, re-checked the system repeatedly, suspecting a radar fault, before concluding the tracks were real.

On November 14, two F/A-18F Super Hornets from squadron VFA-41 'Black Aces', already airborne for a training exercise, were vectored by the Princeton to investigate a contact. Commander David Fravor (squadron commanding officer) and Lt. Cmdr. Alex Dietrich, each with a weapons-systems officer (WSO), arrived at the assigned point. Fravor reported observing, over an area of churning or 'boiling' water roughly the size of a commercial aircraft just beneath the surface, a smooth white object with no wings, no windows and no visible exhaust, shaped like a Tic-Tac about 12 meters long, moving erratically over the water. As Fravor began a spiraling descent toward it, the object appeared to react to his trajectory, climbed to meet him, then accelerated out of sight in one or two seconds. The disturbance in the water vanished.

A few hours later, another Nimitz aircraft flown by Lt. Chad Underwood was sent to a rendezvous point (CAP point) toward which the object, per the Princeton, had reappeared almost instantly some 60 miles away. Underwood obtained, with the ATFLIR infrared sensor, the roughly 76-second video known as 'FLIR1', which shows the object and its apparent abrupt lateral acceleration at the end of the recording. The video was published by To The Stars Academy in 2017 alongside the New York Times report and officially acknowledged as authentic by the Pentagon in April 2020. The Princeton's radar continued to register objects intermittently over several days of the exercise.

Part 02

Why this case moved the needle

The case is the modern cornerstone of the UAP phenomenon with full institutional confirmation: ATFLIR video officially released by the Pentagon, eight military witnesses with operational qualifications (pilots, WSOs, Aegis operators), radar data recorded intermittently over several days of the exercise, and sustained public sworn testimony. A direct catalyst for the AATIP/UAPTF/AARO program and for the legislative creation of UAP transparency in 2022-2023.

In 2026, amid the disclosure cycle, journalist Ross Coulthart publicly argued that the Tic-Tac was a classified Lockheed Martin program —not technology of non-human origin. David Fravor rejected this in public appearances (“it makes no scientific sense”), though with an honest caveat: he cannot categorically assert it is not, only that he has no evidence that it is. The dispute is journalistic and without primary documentation: it does not change the case’s evidential core but illustrates its open question — the multi-sensor operational testimony is solid, while the ultimate attribution (domestic classified, adversary, or non-human technology) remains undecided.

What sets Nimitz apart within the corpus is the convergence of observation modalities rarely brought together: a ship's radar (Princeton), the visual observation of two pilots and their systems officers from two different aircraft, and the infrared record of a third aircraft's sensor. That multiplicity is precisely what makes single-mode conventional explanations hard: a radar artifact would not explain the visual sighting, and an optical phenomenon would not explain the sensor lock or the Aegis track. Skeptics have proposed that the FLIR1 video shows a distant aircraft whose apparent abrupt final motion is an effect of the sensor's own tracking, and that the descriptions of extreme performance may be colored by memory reconstruction years later; proponents reply that the full picture — churning water, the object's reaction to Fravor's maneuver, near-instant reappearance 60 miles away per radar — does not reduce to a single artifact. The honest balance: the case is probably the best-documented in the corpus in terms of the quality and convergence of witnesses and instruments, but the nature of the object remains formally unresolved, and that indeterminacy — not an attribution — is what the case establishes robustly.

Part 03

What's left on paper

Documented evidence

  1. ATFLIR 'FLIR1' video officially declassified by the Pentagon (April 2020)
  2. USS Princeton SPY-1 Aegis radar tracks over a full week of exercises
  3. Sworn testimony by Fravor and Graves before House Oversight (July 2023)
  4. Internal Navy report rating airspace 'unsafe to fly' due to encounter frequency

Sources

  1. Pentagon Official Statement on UAP Videos (abril 2020)
  2. DVIDS — video oficial 'FLIR1' (mirror del Pentágono) Video embedded in this case's viewer.
  3. Powell, Reid, Stratton et al. — Tic Tac UAP Executive Report (TTSA 2019) Full engineering reconstruction
  4. House Oversight UAP Hearing — Fravor testimony (julio 2023)
  5. Kean, L. — NYT 'Glowing Auras and Black Money' (dic 2017)
  6. Coulthart vs. Fravor — disputa sobre la atribución del Tic-Tac (2026) Journalistic claim (Lockheed Martin program) and Fravor's public rejection; a single-line, contested source with no primary documentation.

Patterns it exhibits (1)

Location

Pacific, Baja California · 32.22°, -117.78°

Distribution of explanations

This case is classified among the model's hypotheses: the bar splits 100% by how much each explanation weighs (the uncertainty is spread across the hypotheses the case supports). Summed across the corpus they produce the comparable partition. It is a different question from the Probability above: that one estimates how likely the case is a genuinely unexplained phenomenon; this one splits which the explanation would be.

Classified human technology27%
Non-human + state cover-up27%
Non-human, no state management18%
Adversary technology17%
Misidentification11%

Modal hypothesis: Classified human technology 27% · sums to 100%

Structured analytical judgment, not a calibrated frequency. Forced classification: the mass the evidence cannot assign is spread across the hypotheses the case does support.

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Associated actors (10)